The Abraham Accords: Normalizing Israel in the Middle East

Overview

The Abraham Accords, signed in September-December 2020, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states. Within the Pax Judaica framework, the Accords represent:

• Officially: Historic peace breakthrough; economic integration
• Conspiratorially: Public unveiling of long-standing covert alliances
• Geopolitically: Arab states aligning with Israel against Iran
• Eschatologically: Final stage preparation - Arab world accepting Pax Judaica

The Agreements (Documented)

Signatory States

What Changed?

Before Abraham Accords:5

• No diplomatic relations
• No direct flights
• No trade agreements
• No embassies
• Official state of hostility (except Egypt 1979, Jordan 1994)

After Abraham Accords:6

• Mutual embassies opened
• Direct flights daily
• Billions in trade deals
• Military cooperation (reported)
• Intelligence sharing (reported)
• Tourism exchanges

Why Did Arab States Agree?

Official Explanations

Economic opportunity:11

• Access to Israeli tech/innovation
• Investment opportunities
• Tourism revenue
• Trade partnerships

Regional security:12

• Iran as common threat
• Cooperation against terrorism
• Military technology access

Diplomatic benefits:13

• Improved U.S. relations
• Status as "moderate" Arab state
• Influence over Israeli-Palestinian issue

The Quid Pro Quo (Documented)

UAE:14

• Israel suspended West Bank annexation plans
• Access to F-35 fighter jets (blocked by Biden admin later)
• Closer U.S. security partnership

Bahrain:15

• U.S. continued support despite human rights concerns
• Economic benefits via UAE partnership

Sudan:16

• Removal from State Sponsors of Terrorism list
• Access to international finance
• Debt relief

Morocco:17

• U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara
• First country to recognize U.S. independence (1777) - historical tie invoked

The Conspiracy Perspective

Covert Alliances Made Public

The claim: Abraham Accords didn't create new relationships but formalized decades of secret cooperation.18

Evidence for prior cooperation:19

• Mossad operations in Arab states (documented in leaks)
• Joint intelligence on Iran
• Back-channel negotiations (wikileaks cables)
• Arms deals through third parties
• Shared surveillance technology

Interpretation: Accords are public relations exercise; real alliances existed since 1990s or earlier.

The Iranian Threat as Pretext

The argument: Iran threat exaggerated to justify Israel-Arab alliance serving other purposes.20

Alternative motivation cited:

• Consolidating Pax Judaica hegemony
• Encircling remaining resistance (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon)
• Preparing military infrastructure for Greater Israel
• Economic integration to create dependencies

Supporting evidence:

• Military cooperation expanding rapidly21
• Intelligence fusion centers reported22
• Covert operations coordination

Jared Kushner's Background

Questions raised:23

• Kushner family ties to Israel (father Charles Kushner funded settlements)
• Kushner Companies' financial dealings
• Personal relationship with Netanyahu
• Conflicts of interest in negotiating role

Documented facts:24

• Kushner met with MBS dozens of times (unusual for advisor)
• Kushner Companies sought investments from Gulf states
• $2 billion Saudi investment in Kushner's fund after leaving White House25

Speculation: Kushner personally profited from Accords; financial incentives drove policy.

Palestine Abandoned

The framework: Accords sidelined Palestinian cause, leaving them isolated.26

Palestinian position: Betrayal by Arab states; normalization without Palestinian statehood violates Arab League consensus.27

Arab state response: Palestinian leadership too inflexible; time for new approach.28

Consequence: Palestinians have less leverage than ever.

Economic Integration

Trade and Investment (Documented)

UAE-Israel (2020-2026):29

• Bilateral trade: ~$2.5 billion annually (from zero)
• Investment deals: $10+ billion announced
• Tech partnerships: Hundreds of agreements
• Tourism: Thousands of Israeli tourists to Dubai

Sectors:30

• Technology (AI, cybersecurity, defense tech)
• Finance (banking, fintech)
• Healthcare
• Agriculture (desert farming tech)
• Renewable energy

The "New Middle East" Vision

Proposed regional integration:31

• Free trade zone
• Shared infrastructure (rail, energy grids)
• Technology corridor
• Tourism circuit
• Financial hub (Dubai or Tel Aviv)

Comparison: Similar to EU integration model but with authoritarian states.32

Military and Intelligence Cooperation

Reported Joint Activities

What's documented:33

• Israeli defense companies opening offices in UAE
• Joint air force exercises (reported)
• Surveillance technology sales
• Intelligence sharing on Iran

What's speculated:34

• Joint operations against Iranian targets
• Mossad operating from Gulf bases
• Integrated missile defense systems
• Shared intelligence fusion centers

The Iran Focus

Joint threat perception:35

• Iranian nuclear program
• Hezbollah in Lebanon
• Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria, Yemen
• Proxy warfare

Coordination: Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia (not signatory but cooperating) form axis.36

The Pax Judaica Interpretation

Stage III Emergence

The framework:

Abraham Accords as Stage III milestone:

✅ Arab world accepting Israel's regional dominance

✅ Economic integration creating dependencies

✅ Military cooperation establishing Israeli supremacy

✅ Jerusalem increasingly central to regional affairs

⚠️ Path to Israeli-led regional order

Next steps predicted:

• More Arab states join (Saudi Arabia most significant)
• Regional security architecture centered on Israel
• Economic system integrated with Tel Aviv/Jerusalem
• Palestinian issue fully marginalized
• Greater Israel expansion enabled

Saudi Arabia: The Missing Piece

Why Saudi normalization matters:37

• Largest Arab economy
• Guardian of holy sites (Mecca, Medina)
• Leader of Arab/Muslim world
• U.S.'s key Arab ally

Status (2026):38

• Informal cooperation ongoing
• Public normalization not yet announced
• Biden administration pursuing deal
• Saudi demands: U.S. defense treaty, nuclear program, Palestinian concessions

Speculation: Saudi normalization would complete Pax Judaica regional architecture.

Reactions and Consequences

Palestinian Response

Mahmoud Abbas (PA President): "Treason... betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa, and the Palestinian cause."39

Hamas: Condemned as collaboration with enemy.40

Palestinian public: Anger, sense of abandonment.41

Arab Street vs. Arab States

Popular opinion (polling):42

• Majorities in Arab countries oppose normalization
• View as betrayal of Palestinians
• See as serving Western/Israeli interests

Authoritarian states: Can ignore public opinion; no elections to worry about.43

Question: Will popular opposition eventually force reversal?

Regional Realignment

New axes emerging:44

Pro-normalization bloc:

• Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan
• Tacit: Saudi Arabia, Oman
• U.S. backing

Resistance axis:

• Iran, Syria, Iraq (government), Lebanon (Hezbollah)
• Yemen (Houthis)
• Palestinian factions (Hamas, PIJ)

Consequence: Middle East increasingly divided into camps.

Long-Term Implications

Will It Last?

Optimistic view:45

• Economic ties create mutual interests
• People-to-people exchanges build understanding
• Regime stability ensures continuity

Pessimistic view:46

• Built on authoritarian states (vulnerable to coups)
• Popular opposition simmering
• No resolution to Palestinian issue (festering wound)
• Could collapse in crisis

The Palestinian Question

The problem: Normalization without Palestinian state resolution.47

Scenarios:

Scenario A: Palestinian cause fades; status quo becomes permanent

Scenario B: Frustration boils over; Third Intifada

Scenario C: International pressure eventually forces two-state solution

Scenario D: One-state solution (apartheid or democracy?)

Current trajectory (as of 2026): Scenario A most likely; Palestinians increasingly marginalized.

Critiques

Critique 1: Overstating Significance

Critique: UAE and Bahrain were never enemies; formalizing doesn't change much.48

Counter: Psychological barrier broken; more states will follow.

Critique 2: Palestinian Exclusion Unjust

Critique: Peace built on injustice won't last; Palestinians must be included.49

Counter: Palestinian leadership too inflexible; regional approach needed.

Critique 3: Serves Authoritarians

Critique: Empowers autocrats (UAE, Bahrain, Egypt); bad for human rights and democracy.50

Counter: Realpolitik; stability requires working with existing regimes.

What's Next?

Potential Future Signatories

The "Deal of the Century" Redux?

Trump peace plan (January 2020):51

• Israeli sovereignty over settlements
• Jerusalem as Israeli capital
• Palestinian state with limited sovereignty
• Palestinians rejected entirely

Post-Abraham Accords context: U.S./Israel may impose unilateral solution; Palestinians have no veto.52

Discussion Questions

Do Abraham Accords represent genuine peace or cynical realpolitik?

Can normalization succeed without resolving Palestinian issue?

Are Arab states betraying Palestinian cause or pursuing rational interests?

Will Abraham Accords lead to regional stability or entrench conflicts?

Does this represent Stage III of Pax Judaica, or is that interpretation overblown?

Further Reading

• Greater Israel Project
• Palestinian Nakba
• Jared Kushner
• Saudi Arabia's Role
• Iran Containment Strategy

This article examines the Abraham Accords within the Pax Judaica framework. While the agreements and their consequences are documented, interpretations of long-term conspiracy and Stage III fulfillment remain speculative.