Geopolitical Predictions

10 min readUpdated Jan 20, 2026Loading...

Overview

The Pax Judaica framework includes specific predictions about near-term and long-term geopolitical developments. This article catalogs these predictions, examines their reasoning, and tracks their status.

Important note: These are predictions made by proponents of the framework, presented here for documentation. They are speculative and should not be taken as fact.

Regional Predictions

Europe

PredictionReasoningStatus

Europe-Russia warNATO expansion; Ukraine as triggerActive conflict (Ukraine)
Civil wars in EuropeImmigration-driven social tensionRising tensions in multiple countries
Economic collapseEnergy dependency; deindustrializationPartial (energy crisis 2022-23)
Rise of far-rightBacklash against immigration, EUElectoral gains across Europe

Framework logic: Europe must be weakened so it cannot challenge the emerging order. Immigration creates internal division; Russia conflict drains resources and unity.

Mainstream analysis: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is widely analyzed through the lens of NATO expansion, Russian security concerns, and Putin's imperial ambitions.2 European energy vulnerability resulted from decades of policy choices regarding Russian gas dependence.3

"You have both war with Russia as well as civil war. So Europe is kind of screwed."
— Professor Jiang

United States

PredictionReasoningStatus

Civil conflict/warLeft-right polarizationIncreasing political violence
Venezuela interventionMonroe Doctrine; resourcesThreatened but not executed
Economic declineDebt, de-dollarizationOngoing concerns
Loss of Middle EastIran war will force withdrawalNot yet

Framework logic: America must be exhausted militarily and economically. Internal division prevents unified response. Forced out of Middle East, assets transfer to Israel.

Mainstream analysis: American polarization is studied extensively by political scientists who point to factors including media fragmentation, geographic sorting, and institutional failures.4 Economic concerns about debt sustainability are debated by economists across the political spectrum.5

"Random violence will be more and more common in the United States... eventually they'll go to war... the left and right, they really don't like each other."
— Professor Jiang

Middle East

PredictionReasoningStatus

US-Iran warFinal obstacle to Greater IsraelTensions persist
Destruction of Iran"Bomb the crap out of Iran"Not yet
US loses/withdrawsForced out of regionPartial (Iraq withdrawal)
Israel expands influenceFills power vacuumAbraham Accords; regional normalization
Greater Israel actualizedNile to EuphratesNot evident

Framework logic: Iran is the last major regional power opposing Israeli hegemony. Its destruction (even if America also suffers) clears the path.

Mainstream analysis: US-Iran tensions stem from the 1979 revolution, nuclear program concerns, and regional proxy conflicts.6 The Abraham Accords (2020) normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, though analysts debate whether this represents strategic realignment or diplomatic achievement.7

"America at some point will go to war with Iran, and this will destroy both countries... if America loses war, it's forced out of the Middle East. And once it's forced out of the Middle East, all its military assets go to Israel."
— Professor Jiang

Asia

PredictionReasoningStatus

China-Japan conflictHistorical tensions; TaiwanTensions elevated
India-China conflictBorder disputesPeriodic clashes
US embargo of ChinaSea power blockadeTrade restrictions increasing
Chinese economic crisisCut off from resourcesPartial (property crisis)

Framework logic: Asian powers must be kept in conflict with each other, preventing unified resistance to the emerging order.

Mainstream analysis: US-China competition is analyzed as great power rivalry, with scholars debating whether conflict is inevitable (the "Thucydides Trap").8 China's economic challenges, including the property sector crisis, are attributed to domestic policy decisions and demographic factors.9

Africa

PredictionReasoningStatus

Israeli influence expansionResource controlGrowing tech/agriculture partnerships
Proxy controlThrough local governmentsAlleged; difficult to verify
Resource extractionCritical minerals, foodOngoing competition

Framework logic: Africa's resources are essential for the future order. Control must be established through proxies and economic leverage.

Mainstream analysis: Great power competition in Africa involves China, the US, Russia, and European nations, each pursuing economic and strategic interests.10

Timeline Scenarios

Short-Term (1-5 Years)

According to the framework, expect:

  • Escalation in Ukraine — Possible NATO direct involvement
  • Major terror events in Europe — Attributed to immigration
  • US political crisis — 2024/2028 election disputes
  • Israel-Iran confrontation — Direct or proxy conflict
  • Economic shocks — Currency crises, market disruptions
  • Medium-Term (5-15 Years)

  • US withdrawal from Middle East — Forced by exhaustion
  • European political transformation — Far-right or technocratic governance
  • Israel as regional hegemon — Normalized, expanded
  • Digital currency implementation — CBDCs widespread11
  • AI surveillance normalization — Chinese model goes global12
  • Long-Term (15-30 Years)

  • Jerusalem as "world capital" — Financial/tech center
  • Global surveillance state — Digital ID, social credit
  • Transhumanist technologies — For elites
  • Population reduction — Through war, disease, economic collapse
  • Eschatological events — (For believers in the framework)
  • Tracking Predictions

    Confirmed/Partially Confirmed

    PredictionMade WhenOutcome

    Russia-Ukraine conflict escalationPre-2022Confirmed (2022 invasion)
    European energy crisisPre-2022Confirmed
    Rising antisemitism post-Oct 7Framework predictedConfirmed13
    US political polarization worseningOngoingConfirmed4
    Israeli normalization with Arab statesPre-Abraham AccordsConfirmed7

    Unconfirmed/Failed

    PredictionMade WhenStatus

    Imminent US-Iran warRepeated since 2000sNot occurred
    Imminent dollar collapseRepeated since 2000sNot occurred
    Greater Israel expansionOngoingNot evident at scale claimed
    European civil warsPredictedNot occurred (tensions exist)

    Pending

    PredictionTimeframe Given

    US-Iran warImminent to 5 years
    US civil conflictNext decade
    Jerusalem as financial center10-20 years
    Global digital currency5-15 years

    Critical Analysis

    Why Some Predictions Seem Accurate

  • Broad framing: Vague predictions ("tensions increase") are easily confirmed
  • Long timeframes: No deadline means never falsified
  • Selection bias: Hits remembered, misses forgotten14
  • Real patterns: Some geopolitical dynamics are observable without the framework
  • Why Some Predictions Fail

  • Overestimation of coordination: Assumes unified "plan" where there's chaos
  • Underestimation of resistance: Other powers have agency
  • Economic complexity: Markets don't follow simple scripts
  • Human unpredictability: Events have unintended consequences
  • The Falsifiability Problem

    The framework is difficult to falsify because:15

    • Failures can be explained as "delays" in the plan
    • Unexpected events become "part of the plan we didn't see"
    • The timeline is flexible ("it could take decades")
    • Counter-evidence is dismissed as "deception"

    Alternative Explanations

    For each prediction area, mainstream analysts offer different explanations:

    RegionFramework ExplanationMainstream Explanation

    Europe-RussiaDeliberate destabilizationNATO expansion + Russian imperialism2
    US polarizationEngineered divisionSocial media + inequality + cultural change4
    Middle East chaosGreater Israel planFailed states + sectarianism + resource competition6
    China tensionsKeep Asia dividedGreat power competition8
    Immigration crisesPlanned demographic replacementWar, poverty, climate driving migration16

    How to Evaluate

    When assessing these predictions:

  • Specificity: Vague predictions are meaningless; look for concrete claims
  • Timeline: Predictions without deadlines can't be falsified
  • Track record: Has the source been right before? How often wrong?
  • Alternative explanations: Are there simpler explanations?
  • Falsifiability: What would disprove the prediction?15
  • Discussion Questions

  • Which predictions have the strongest evidence? Which the weakest?
  • How should we evaluate frameworks that mix accurate observations with speculation?
  • Can geopolitical trends be predicted without assuming a coordinated "plan"?
  • What events would falsify the Pax Judaica framework?
  • Further Reading

    This article catalogs predictions made within the Pax Judaica framework for documentation purposes. These are speculative claims, not established facts.

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    References

    1
    Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. W.W. Norton, 2001. ISBN: 978-0393349276. https://www.amazon.com/Tragedy-Great-Power-Politics-Updated/dp/0393349276
    https://www.amazon.com/Tragedy-Great-Power-Politics-Updated/dp/0393349276
    2
    Mearsheimer, John J. "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault." Foreign Affairs, September/October 2014. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-18/why-ukraine-crisis-west-s-fault
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-18/why-ukraine-crisis-west-s-fault
    3
    Bordoff, Jason and Meghan L. O'Sullivan. "Europe's Energy Crisis Is a Glimpse of What's to Come." Foreign Policy, September 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/06/europe-energy-crisis-natural-gas-russia-ukraine-winter/
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/06/europe-energy-crisis-natural-gas-russia-ukraine-winter/
    4
    Pew Research Center. "Political Polarization in the American Public." June 2014, updated regularly. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/
    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/
    5
    Congressional Budget Office. "The Long-Term Budget Outlook." Annual reports. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59014
    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59014
    6
    Takeyh, Ray. Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs. Oxford University Press, 2009. ISBN: 978-0195327847. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/guardians-of-the-revolution-9780195327847
    https://global.oup.com/academic/product/guardians-of-the-revolution-9780195327847
    7
    U.S. Department of State. "The Abraham Accords." Official documentation. https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/
    https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/
    8
    Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017. ISBN: 978-0544935273. https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydidess/dp/0544935276
    https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydidess/dp/0544935276
    9
    Rogoff, Kenneth and Yuanchen Yang. "Peak China Housing." Journal of Financial Economics, 2021. https://scholar.harvard.edu/rogoff/publications/peak-china-housing
    https://scholar.harvard.edu/rogoff/publications/peak-china-housing
    10
    Czerep, Jędrzej. "Great Power Competition in Africa." Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/great-power-competition-africa
    https://www.csis.org/analysis/great-power-competition-africa
    11
    Atlantic Council. "Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker." Updated regularly. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/
    12
    Feldstein, Steven. "The Global Expansion of AI Surveillance." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2019. https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/09/17/global-expansion-of-ai-surveillance-pub-79847
    https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/09/17/global-expansion-of-ai-surveillance-pub-79847
    13
    Anti-Defamation League. "Audit of Antisemitic Incidents." Annual reports. https://www.adl.org/resources/report/audit-antisemitic-incidents-2023
    https://www.adl.org/resources/report/audit-antisemitic-incidents-2023
    14
    Nickerson, Raymond S. "Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises." Review of General Psychology, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175
    https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175
    15
    Popper, Karl. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Routledge, 1959/2002. ISBN: 978-0415278447. https://www.routledge.com/The-Logic-of-Scientific-Discovery/Popper/p/book/9780415278447
    https://www.routledge.com/The-Logic-of-Scientific-Discovery/Popper/p/book/9780415278447
    16
    United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). "Global Trends: Forced Displacement." Annual reports. https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends
    https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends