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The Three Stages Model

◎Framework
•11 min read•Updated Jan 20, 2026•Loading...

Overview

The "Three Stages" model is a framework for understanding modern history as a succession of hegemonic eras, each dominated by a different power and each preparing the conditions for the next. This model is most associated with Sheikh Imran Hosein's Islamic eschatological interpretation, though similar patterns appear in secular geopolitical analysis.

The three stages are:

  • Pax Britannica (1815–1914) — British Empire dominance
  • Pax Americana (1945–present) — American superpower era
  • Pax Judaica (speculative) — Theorized Israel/Jerusalem-centered world order

    • Hegemonic Succession: Mainstream Scholarship

    Before examining the eschatological interpretation, it's important to note that the concept of hegemonic succession is mainstream in international relations scholarship:

    Key academic works:

    • Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (1987)1
    • Robert Keohane, After Hegemony (1984)2
    • G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan (2011)3
    • Giovanni Arrighi, The Long Twentieth Century (1994)4

    These scholars analyze hegemonic transitions without eschatological framing—they see patterns in history driven by economic, military, and institutional factors.

    Stage I: Pax Britannica (1815–1914)

    Historical Context

    "Pax Britannica" (Latin for "British Peace") refers to the period of relative global stability under British hegemony, beginning after the Napoleonic Wars and ending with World War I. This is a standard periodization in diplomatic history.5

    Key Characteristics (Documented)

    DomainBritish DominanceAcademic Source

    MilitaryRoyal Navy controlled sea lanes; "two-power standard" policyKennedy (1987)1
    EconomicGold standard centered on London; free trade ideologyEichengreen, Golden Fetters (1992)6
    ColonialEmpire spanning 25% of world's land surfaceFerguson, Empire (2002)7
    FinancialCity of London as global banking centerCain & Hopkins, British Imperialism (2001)8
    CulturalEnglish language, legal systems, institutions spread globallyDarwin, The Empire Project (2009)9

    Role in the Eschatological Framework

    In Hosein's interpretation, Pax Britannica served specific functions:10

  • Dismantled the Ottoman Caliphate — The last major Islamic political entity was systematically weakened
  • Established the Zionist project — Balfour Declaration (1917) promised a Jewish homeland in Palestine11
  • Created the modern Middle East — Sykes-Picot Agreement drew arbitrary borders12
  • Prepared the transfer — British power decline after WWI set stage for American succession

    • Historical Events (Documented)

    • 1839–1876: Tanzimat reforms in Ottoman Empire13
    • 1882: British occupation of Egypt14
    • 1916: Sykes-Picot Agreement12
    • 1917: Balfour Declaration11
    • 1918: Ottoman Empire collapse15
    • 1920s: British Mandate over Palestine16

    Key sources:

    • David Fromkin, A Peace to End All Peace (1989)17
    • Eugene Rogan, The Fall of the Ottomans (2015)15

    -----

    Military750+ overseas bases; NATO allianceVine, Base Nation (2015)19
    EconomicBretton Woods system; dollar as reserve currencyEichengreen, Exorbitant Privilege (2011)20
    TechnologicalSilicon Valley; internet; space programO'Mara, The Code (2019)21
    CulturalHollywood; consumer culture; English as global lingua francaNye, Soft Power (2004)22
    FinancialWall Street; SWIFT system; sanctions capabilityFarrell & Newman, "Weaponized Interdependence" (2019)23

    Role in the Eschatological Framework

    According to the Three Stages model, Pax Americana continued the work of Pax Britannica:10

  • Protected and expanded Israel — Military aid, diplomatic cover, UN vetoes
  • Destabilized the Middle East — Wars and interventions24
  • Built surveillance infrastructure — NSA, Five Eyes25
  • Created financial control mechanisms — Dollar hegemony, sanctions23
  • Promoted secularism/materialism — Cultural export

    • The "Transition" Theory

    Proponents argue we are witnessing the transition from Stage II to Stage III:

    Signs of American decline cited:

    IndicatorStatusAcademic Analysis

    National debt exceeding $30 trillionDocumentedCBO reports; economists debate implications26
    Political polarizationDocumentedPew Research; academic studies27
    Military overextensionDebatedBacevich, The Limits of Power (2008)28
    De-dollarization effortsOngoingAcademic debate; see Eichengreen20

    Signs of Stage III emergence cited (speculative claims):

    • Israel's growing tech sector dominance29
    • Abraham Accords normalizing Israel in Middle East30
    • Alleged "Greater Israel" expansion
    • Jerusalem's increasing symbolic centrality
    • AI/surveillance technology concentration

    Stage III: Pax Judaica (Speculative)

    The Theory

    Pax Judaica represents the theorized final stage before eschatological events. In this framework, global power would center on Jerusalem/Israel, with control exercised through:

    • Technology: AI, surveillance, digital currency
    • Finance: New reserve currency or financial system
    • Intelligence: Mossad and allied agencies
    • Proxy control: Indirect rule through allied governments

    Hosein's Eschatological Interpretation

    Sheikh Imran Hosein connects this framework to Islamic end-times prophecy:10

  • Dajjāl (Antichrist) — Will rule from Jerusalem; one-eyed symbolism represents materialist worldview
  • Gog and Magog (Ya'juj wa Ma'juj) — Already released; identified with Western/Zionist power structures
  • Return of Jesus (Isa) — Will descend in Damascus, defeat Dajjāl, establish justice
  • Imam Mahdi — Will unite Muslims before final events

    • Academic context: For scholarly analysis of Islamic eschatology, see David Cook, Studies in Muslim Apocalyptic (2002)31 and Jean-Pierre Filiu, Apocalypse in Islam (2011)32.

    Critical Evaluation

    What's documented:

    • Israel does have significant tech sector29
    • Abraham Accords represent diplomatic normalization30
    • US provides substantial military aid to Israel33

    What's speculative:

    • Coordinated plan for Jerusalem-based world order
    • Eschatological timeline
    • Connection between current events and prophecy fulfillment

    Comparative Analysis

    Similarities Across Interpretations

    ElementHoseinSecular IR Theory

    Hegemonic succession✓✓
    Britain → America transition✓✓
    Technology as power✓✓
    Financial centralization✓✓
    Eschatological culmination✓✗

    Key Differences

    Hosein's framework:

    • Explicitly Islamic eschatology
    • Dajjāl as central figure
    • Emphasis on usury (riba) as mechanism
    • Solution: Return to Islamic governance, gold/silver currency

    Secular analysis:

    • Rejects eschatological framing
    • Sees normal great power competition
    • Israel as regional power, not global hegemon
    • No teleological "plan"

    Critiques of the Model

    Methodological Critiques

  • Unfalsifiability: Any event can be interpreted as "part of the plan"34
  • Confirmation bias: Selects data fitting the narrative, ignores contradictions
  • Post-hoc reasoning: Events are explained after the fact, not predicted
  • Reification: Treats abstract "stages" as concrete historical actors

    • Historical Critiques

  • Oversimplification: Reduces complex history to single narrative35
  • Agency attribution: Assumes coordinated planning where there's chaos
  • Eurocentrism: Ignores non-Western actors and dynamics
  • Timeline flexibility: "Transitions" are conveniently vague

    • Ethical Critiques

  • Antisemitic parallels: Echoes "Protocols" style conspiracy theories36
  • Scapegoating potential: Blames specific group for systemic problems
  • Passivity risk: If "plan" is predetermined, why resist?

    • The Model's Appeal

    Despite critiques, the Three Stages model resonates because it:

  • Provides coherence: Makes sense of chaotic world events
  • Offers agency: Identifies "enemies" who can theoretically be opposed
  • Connects to tradition: Grounds modern events in religious prophecy
  • Predicts direction: Claims to know where history is heading
  • Creates community: Shared framework builds solidarity among believers

    • Academic analysis of why conspiracy theories appeal: Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy (2003)37; Sunstein & Vermeule, "Conspiracy Theories" (2009)38.

    Discussion Questions

  • Can hegemonic succession be observed without eschatological interpretation?
  • What would falsify the Three Stages model?
  • How should we evaluate frameworks that mix historical analysis with prophecy?
  • Is there value in the model even if its predictions are wrong?

    • Further Reading

    This article presents the Three Stages model for educational purposes. The framework is contested and contains speculative elements not supported by mainstream scholarship.

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    References

    1
    Kennedy, Paul. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. Random House, 1987. ISBN: 978-0679720195. Classic study of hegemonic cycles.
    2
    Keohane, Robert. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton University Press, 1984. ISBN: 978-0691022284.
    3
    Ikenberry, G. John. Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order. Princeton University Press, 2011. ISBN: 978-0691125589.
    4
    Arrighi, Giovanni. The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power, and the Origins of Our Times. Verso, 1994. ISBN: 978-1844673049. World-systems analysis of hegemonic cycles.
    5
    For standard diplomatic history of the period: Schroeder, Paul. The Transformation of European Politics, 1763-1848. Oxford University Press, 1994.
    6
    Eichengreen, Barry. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939. Oxford University Press, 1992. ISBN: 978-0195101133.
    7
    Ferguson, Niall. Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power. Basic Books, 2002. ISBN: 978-0465023295.
    8
    Cain, P.J. and A.G. Hopkins. British Imperialism: 1688-2000. 2nd ed. Longman, 2001. ISBN: 978-0582472860.
    9
    Darwin, John. The Empire Project: The Rise and Fall of the British World-System, 1830-1970. Cambridge University Press, 2009. ISBN: 978-0521317894.
    10
    Hosein, Imran Nazar. Jerusalem in the Qur'an. Masjid Jami'ah, 2002. Available at Internet Archive: https://archive.org/details/JerusalemInTheQuranBySheikhImranNazarHosein
    https://archive.org/details/JerusalemInTheQuranBySheikhImranNazarHosein
    11
    Schneer, Jonathan. The Balfour Declaration: The Origins of the Arab-Israeli Conflict. Random House, 2010. ISBN: 978-1400065325. Academic history of the Balfour Declaration.
    12
    Barr, James. A Line in the Sand: The Anglo-French Struggle for the Middle East, 1914-1948. W.W. Norton, 2012. ISBN: 978-0393070651. Documents Sykes-Picot and its aftermath.
    13
    Hanioğlu, M. Şükrü. A Brief History of the Late Ottoman Empire. Princeton University Press, 2008. ISBN: 978-0691134529.
    14
    Owen, Roger. Lord Cromer: Victorian Imperialist, Edwardian Proconsul. Oxford University Press, 2004. ISBN: 978-0199253463.
    15
    Rogan, Eugene. The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East. Basic Books, 2015. ISBN: 978-0465023073.
    16
    Segev, Tom. One Palestine, Complete: Jews and Arabs Under the British Mandate. Metropolitan Books, 2000. ISBN: 978-0805065879.
    17
    Fromkin, David. A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East. Henry Holt, 1989. ISBN: 978-0805068849.
    18
    For overview of Pax Americana concept: Lundestad, Geir. The United States and Western Europe Since 1945. Oxford University Press, 2003.
    19
    Vine, David. Base Nation: How U.S. Military Bases Abroad Harm America and the World. Metropolitan Books, 2015. ISBN: 978-1627791694.
    20
    Eichengreen, Barry. Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System. Oxford University Press, 2011. ISBN: 978-0199753789.
    21
    O'Mara, Margaret. The Code: Silicon Valley and the Remaking of America. Penguin Press, 2019. ISBN: 978-0399562181.
    22
    Nye, Joseph. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. PublicAffairs, 2004. ISBN: 978-1586483067.
    23
    Farrell, Henry and Abraham Newman. "Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion." International Security 44 (2019): 42-79. doi:10.1162/isec_a_00351
    24
    For Middle East interventions: Bacevich, Andrew. America's War for the Greater Middle East. Random House, 2016. ISBN: 978-0553393934.
    25
    On surveillance: Greenwald, Glenn. No Place to Hide: Edward Snowden, the NSA, and the U.S. Surveillance State. Metropolitan Books, 2014. ISBN: 978-1627790734.
    26
    Congressional Budget Office. Long-term budget projections. https://www.cbo.gov/topics/budget
    https://www.cbo.gov/topics/budget
    27
    Pew Research Center. "Political Polarization in the American Public" (2014, updated annually). https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/
    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/
    28
    Bacevich, Andrew. The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism. Metropolitan Books, 2008. ISBN: 978-0805088151.
    29
    Senor, Dan and Saul Singer. Start-Up Nation: The Story of Israel's Economic Miracle. Twelve, 2009. ISBN: 978-0446541466.
    30
    For Abraham Accords context: Kaye, Dalia Dassa. "The Days After a Deal: What the Abraham Accords Mean for Regional Security." Foreign Affairs, September 2020.
    31
    Cook, David. Studies in Muslim Apocalyptic. Darwin Press, 2002. ISBN: 978-0878501427. Academic study of Islamic eschatology.
    32
    Filiu, Jean-Pierre. Apocalypse in Islam. Trans. M.B. DeBevoise. University of California Press, 2011. ISBN: 978-0520264311.
    33
    Sharp, Jeremy M. "U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel." Congressional Research Service Report RL33222. Updated regularly. https://crsreports.congress.gov/
    https://crsreports.congress.gov/
    34
    Popper, Karl. Conjectures and Refutations. Routledge, 1963. On falsifiability.
    35
    For critique of "great powers" historical narratives: Buzan, Barry and George Lawson. The Global Transformation: History, Modernity and the Making of International Relations. Cambridge University Press, 2015.
    36
    On antisemitic parallels in conspiracy theories: Cohn, Norman. Warrant for Genocide. Eyre & Spottiswoode, 1967.
    37
    Barkun, Michael. A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America. University of California Press, 2003. ISBN: 978-0520238053.
    38
    Sunstein, Cass and Adrian Vermeule. "Conspiracy Theories: Causes and Cures." Journal of Political Philosophy 17 (2009): 202-227. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9760.2008.00325.x

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